Bad Bets

I took the day off yesterday due to a very long night/morning in the casino and needed to recharge my batteries. I'm back today with a lesson. Stay away from the bad bet. Yesterday there were two examples of bad bets. First was the Belmont. Big Brown, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, was going for the Triple Crown and according to the odds (1-4), his trainer (ass), media and general public he couldn't lose. Funny thing happened on the way to the lock of the year in horse racing. He lost. He lost badly. He came in dead last. Nobody really knows why he lost. It could have been his bad foot (doubt it), the heat (93 degrees at race time - i think), lack of steroids in his blood (maybe) or simply a bad day at the track. Fact is, any horse with odds of 1-4 is a bad bet. Why would you put so much up to win so little? This was an event to be watched for the potential history. All of you that lost cash on Big Brown...shame on you. 1-4 odds is never worth it in sports (especially horse racing). The second example of a bad bet yesterday was a little hidden, so not many people were hurt. There was a boxing match pairing WBC super welterweight champion Vernon Forrest (40-3, 37 years old) vs season one winner of "The Contender" Sergio Mora (21-0-1, 27 years old). This was the fifth time a "Contender" participant has attempted to fight for a world title. The four previous attempts were jokes. Not even close. Blowouts going to the champ. So by that, it sounds like Forrest should have been a no-brainer to win this fight. Well, he lost at odds of -$500. Ouch! When it comes to boxing, I always say bet the dog. In this fight it was a case of an old fighter getting out worked by a younger true contender. Finally, on Friday I pick the Boston Red Sox to beat Seattle. It was -$150. They lost 8-0. It killed my night, but I should have known better. It was a bad bet. When two of your starters are out due to injury (one being Manny!) stay away. In addition, anyone see Manny fighting his own teammate the night before in the dugout? I did. Should have told me something was not right in that clubhouse at least temporarily. So remember, stay away from the bad bet.

For the Record...
Friday: 1-3 (-$300)
Blog to Date: 6-6 (-$125)
Red Sox killed me (see above)...Brewer relief pitcher, Guillermo Mota didn't help either. Nice line: 4 runs on 4 hits...no outs in 8th.

Today's picks...
--NBA championship game two. As i said on Friday, look for Kobe to show up and the Zen Master to out coach Doc Rivers. It looks like I'm not the only one that believes the Lakers take the game. The line opened Boston -1.5 and has shifted this morning to LA -1. Don't care. LA Lakers -1
--Day baseball in Miami as the Cincinnati Reds take on the Marlins. This is game three in the series with both of the first two hitting the over. In addition, Florida has gone over 9 of last 10. In face to face battles the over has shown up 4 of 5 times in 2008 and 8 of 10 in the past two seasons. Arron Harang (1-5, 4.42 era on road) starts for the Reds vs Fish first time starter Ryan Tucker. Expect the ball to be popping. CIN/FL OVER 9 -120
--Phillies go for three in a row at Atlanta this afternoon. Philadelphia sends Adam Eaton vs the Brave's Jorge Campillo. Philly has hit the under 6 games in a row including the last two against the Braves. Eaton and Campillo's last two starts have both gone under. Even in the Atl heat, I feel this NL East battle follows the trend. PHL/ATL UNDER 10 -105
--St. Louis Cardinals take on Houston today at Minute Made Park. These two teams have already faced each other 11 times this season. The under has come in 8 of 11. Today the pitching match up makes me think it's coming again. Cardinals send Kyle Lohse (6-2, 3.87 era) takes on the Astros Wandy Rodriguez (2-1, 2.38 era & 1-0, 0.98 era at home) Lohse's last three starts have gone under the total and Rodriguez has been under all year (6 starts). Go with it. STL/HOU UNDER 9 -105

Have fun!